Solar · output simulator

What will these panels actually make?

Real sun geometry and atmospheric physics for your location — not a datasheet number multiplied by daylight hours. No email, no quote form, and every assumption is on this page.

4060 kilowatt hours a year, 1015 per kilowatt peak installed. Best month Jul, worst month Dec.

Location

Searches use OpenStreetMap. Nothing is stored.

Or enter coordinates directly

Searching or using your location fills these in, so you can always see exactly which point the figures are for.

Climate comes from PVGIS, the European Commission's reference dataset — the same source this model is validated against, for examples and searches alike.

Your panels

Both numbers are on the quote, or on the panel label.

Count them off the quote. Type any number — there is no upper limit.

The number on the label, like 400 W or 450 W. Most panels sold today are 350 to 500.

Your roof

If you are unsure, the middle option is right far more often than not.

The direction you would face standing on the roof looking down the slope.

Measured up from flat. Most pitched roofs are between 30 and 45 degrees.

Think about midday, when the sun does most of the work — not early morning.

The fine print
The fine print

Sensible defaults. Change them if you know better — nothing here is fixed. Panel efficiency is not listed because it is not a free choice: it follows from the wattage and the panel size above, and is reported back beside them.

Panel kWp divided by inverter kW. Above about 1.2 the inverter starts capping the brightest hours — deliberate, and worth seeing.

Square metres. A standard residential panel is about 1.9. Bigger panels make more watts.

%

Lost to grime on the glass. Higher in dusty or industrial areas, lower where it rains often.

%

Lost as heat in the cables between the panels and the inverter.

%

No two panels perform identically, and a string runs at the pace of its weakest.

%

Converting DC from the panels into AC for the house. Weighted across the year, not peak.

%

Faults, maintenance and grid outages, as a share of the year.

%

Output lost per degree the panel runs above 25°C. Panels dislike heat.

%

Light bouncing up off the ground. Grass and tarmac are low; snow is very high.

This estimate assumes nothing shades the roof. Set a shading figure below if that is not true.

Annual yield

4060kWh a year

Specific yield

1015kWh per kWp

Installed

4.0kWp installed

↑ Peak

553best month — Jul

↓ Low

90worst month — Dec
Does the angle of the roof matter?

The angle your panels sit at, measured up from flat.

Flat panels collect less over a year than tilted ones at most latitudes, because the sun is rarely overhead. The best annual angle is roughly your latitude minus fifteen degrees. Most pitched roofs already sit between 30 and 45 degrees, so in practice the roof decides this rather than you.

A steeper angle trades a little annual output for noticeably more in winter. If you are sizing around dark-month performance rather than the yearly total, steeper usually wins.

Does the direction it faces matter?

The compass direction your panels face.

In the northern hemisphere a south-facing array collects the most over a year; in the southern hemisphere it is north. Turning away from that costs output, but far less than most people assume, and a split east-west roof produces a flatter, longer generation day.

East and west facing roofs lose less than people expect — typically ten to twenty percent, depending on latitude and tilt; the probe above gives the figure for this roof. They also spread generation across the morning and evening, which can be worth more than the total suggests if you are home at those times and your exports pay poorly.

How much difference do more panels make?

The total area of the panels themselves, not of your roof.

A typical modern panel is about 1.9 square metres and around 400 watts. Generation scales directly with total area — double the panels, double the output.

Output scales almost exactly with area, so this is the one input with no diminishing return in the physics. The limits are roof space, budget, and what your inverter and your export terms will absorb.

Are expensive panels worth it?

How much of the light landing on a panel becomes electricity, at test conditions.

Budget crystalline panels run around 18 to 20 percent; premium ones reach 21 to 23. The difference decides how much power fits in a given area, not how good the electricity is.

Efficiency only matters when roof space is the binding constraint. If you have room to spare, more cheap panels beat fewer expensive ones for the same money.

How much does shade cost me?

How much of the sky your panels can actually see.

This estimate assumes nothing shades your roof. That is almost never exactly true. A shaded panel still generates — diffuse light reaches it from across the whole sky — but direct sun is what carries most of the output, so losing morning or afternoon sun to an obstruction matters more than the shaded fraction alone suggests.

Shading is the single largest source of error in a rooftop estimate, and the only input here we cannot infer for you. A chimney or a neighbouring tree can cost more than choosing the wrong panels ever would.

Best annual angle here: 23–37° — anything in that range is within 0.5% of the best

That is 4.00 kWp of panels covering about 19 m², which works out at 21% panel efficiency. What is kWp?

Month by month

Monthly generationJan: 109 kWhFeb: 164 kWhMar: 327 kWhApr: 479 kWhMay: 519 kWhJun: 533 kWhJul: 553 kWhAug: 480 kWhSep: 401 kWhOct: 253 kWhNov: 151 kWhDec: 90 kWh02004006008001000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Generation is strongly seasonal at this latitude — Jul produces about 6× what Dec does.
Show these figures as a table
Monthly generation
MonthkWh
Jan109
Feb164
Mar327
Apr479
May519
Jun533
Jul553
Aug480
Sep401
Oct253
Nov151
Dec90
Total4060

Where the energy goes

Where the energy goes86% of nameplate reaches the meterNameplateNameplate: 4,714 kWh4,714 kWhReflectance & low lightAfter reflectance: 4,563 kWh remainingReflectance & low light: −151 kWh (3.2%)−151 kWhTemperatureAfter temperature: 4,539 kWh remainingTemperature: −24 kWh (0.5%)−24 kWhSoilingAfter soiling: 4,448 kWh remainingSoiling: −91 kWh (2.0%)−91 kWhDC wiringAfter DC wiring: 4,359 kWh remainingDC wiring: −89 kWh (2.0%)−89 kWhMismatchAfter mismatch: 4,272 kWh remainingMismatch: −87 kWh (2.0%)−87 kWhInverterAfter inverter: 4,101 kWh remainingInverter: −171 kWh (4.0%)−171 kWhDowntimeAfter downtime: 4,060 kWh remainingDowntime: −41 kWh (1.0%)−41 kWhDeliveredDelivered: 4,060 kWh (86%)Losses: 654 kWh (14%)4,060 kWh
Every step here is a separate measured effect, not a single blended loss figure split up afterwards. That is why each one can be named.
Show the loss breakdown as a table
Loss breakdown, kWh a year
StageLossOf the step before
Nameplate4714
Reflectance & low light-1513.2%
Temperature-240.5%
Soiling-912.0%
DC wiring-892.0%
Mismatch-872.0%
Inverter-1714.0%
Downtime-411.0%
Delivered406086.1%

Where the sun sits in your sky

This is optional — the figures above do not depend on it. It answers one question the headline numbers answer badly: at this time of year, is the sun actually where my roof is pointing? Move either scrubber and the sentence follows.

Jun, 12:00 solar time: the sun is 62 degrees above the horizon in the south. The panels meet it at 7 degrees off square, collecting 99% of what a panel aimed straight at it would.

Jun
12:00
Show the sun's position through the day as a table
Sun position in June, solar time, and how squarely this array meets it
HourHeightBearingPanel response
04:0053° north-east0%
06:0018°75° east11%
08:0036°98° east55%
10:0053°130° south-east88%
12:0062°180° south99%
14:0053°230° south-west88%
16:0036°262° west55%
18:0018°285° west11%
20:00307° north-west0%

What do these units mean?

What do kWp and kWh mean?
kWh — kilowatt-hour
A unit of energy, and the thing your electricity bill charges you for. A 1,000-watt heater running for one hour uses one kWh. A typical home uses somewhere between 2,000 and 10,000 kWh a year depending on where it is and how it heats.
kWp — kilowatt-peak
A unit of capacity — how big the solar array is, not how much it makes. It is the output the panels would produce under standard test conditions: bright, cold and perfectly aimed. Real roofs rarely see those conditions, which is why a 4 kWp array does not generate 4 kW for most of the day. One modern panel is roughly 0.4 kWp, so 4 kWp is about ten panels.
Putting them together
kWp is the size of the system; kWh is what it produces over time. The ratio between them — kWh generated per kWp installed, per year — is the honest way to compare locations, because it strips out how big the system happens to be. It runs from roughly 700 in cloudy high latitudes to over 1,800 in sunny deserts.

What this assumed

AssumptionValueWhy
Temporal resolution8760 intervalsHourly across a full year
Module temperature coefficient-0.38%/°CPanels lose output when hot
Nominal operating cell temp45°CStandard rating condition
Soiling2%Dust and dirt, annual average
DC wiring2%Resistive loss before the inverter
Module mismatch2%Panels never perform identically
Inverter efficiency96%Weighted, not peak
Downtime1%Faults and maintenance
Ground reflectance0.20Light bouncing up off the ground
SnowNot modelledDeclared rather than silently ignored

How much to trust this

This model is compared against PVGIS, the European Commission’s reference tool, across 144 fixtures spanning eight sites on five continents. The measured deviation is published rather than summarised: see the methodology page for the figures by climate, latitude and orientation, including where the model is known to run high.

Agreement with a reference model means this implementation reproduces an independent one of the same physics. It is not proof that either matches a real roof, and this page does not claim that.