Solar · output simulator
Real sun geometry and atmospheric physics for your location — not a datasheet number multiplied by daylight hours. No email, no quote form, and every assumption is on this page.
4060 kilowatt hours a year, 1015 per kilowatt peak installed. Best month Jul, worst month Dec.
This estimate assumes nothing shades the roof. Set a shading figure below if that is not true.
Annual yield
4060kWh a yearSpecific yield
1015kWh per kWpInstalled
4.0kWp installed↑ Peak
553best month — Jul↓ Low
90worst month — DecThe angle your panels sit at, measured up from flat.
Flat panels collect less over a year than tilted ones at most latitudes, because the sun is rarely overhead. The best annual angle is roughly your latitude minus fifteen degrees. Most pitched roofs already sit between 30 and 45 degrees, so in practice the roof decides this rather than you.
A steeper angle trades a little annual output for noticeably more in winter. If you are sizing around dark-month performance rather than the yearly total, steeper usually wins.
The compass direction your panels face.
In the northern hemisphere a south-facing array collects the most over a year; in the southern hemisphere it is north. Turning away from that costs output, but far less than most people assume, and a split east-west roof produces a flatter, longer generation day.
East and west facing roofs lose less than people expect — typically ten to twenty percent, depending on latitude and tilt; the probe above gives the figure for this roof. They also spread generation across the morning and evening, which can be worth more than the total suggests if you are home at those times and your exports pay poorly.
The total area of the panels themselves, not of your roof.
A typical modern panel is about 1.9 square metres and around 400 watts. Generation scales directly with total area — double the panels, double the output.
Output scales almost exactly with area, so this is the one input with no diminishing return in the physics. The limits are roof space, budget, and what your inverter and your export terms will absorb.
How much of the light landing on a panel becomes electricity, at test conditions.
Budget crystalline panels run around 18 to 20 percent; premium ones reach 21 to 23. The difference decides how much power fits in a given area, not how good the electricity is.
Efficiency only matters when roof space is the binding constraint. If you have room to spare, more cheap panels beat fewer expensive ones for the same money.
How much of the sky your panels can actually see.
This estimate assumes nothing shades your roof. That is almost never exactly true. A shaded panel still generates — diffuse light reaches it from across the whole sky — but direct sun is what carries most of the output, so losing morning or afternoon sun to an obstruction matters more than the shaded fraction alone suggests.
Shading is the single largest source of error in a rooftop estimate, and the only input here we cannot infer for you. A chimney or a neighbouring tree can cost more than choosing the wrong panels ever would.
Best annual angle here: 23–37° — anything in that range is within 0.5% of the best
That is 4.00 kWp of panels covering about 19 m², which works out at 21% panel efficiency. What is kWp?
| Month | kWh |
|---|---|
| Jan | 109 |
| Feb | 164 |
| Mar | 327 |
| Apr | 479 |
| May | 519 |
| Jun | 533 |
| Jul | 553 |
| Aug | 480 |
| Sep | 401 |
| Oct | 253 |
| Nov | 151 |
| Dec | 90 |
| Total | 4060 |
| Stage | Loss | Of the step before |
|---|---|---|
| Nameplate | 4714 | — |
| Reflectance & low light | -151 | 3.2% |
| Temperature | -24 | 0.5% |
| Soiling | -91 | 2.0% |
| DC wiring | -89 | 2.0% |
| Mismatch | -87 | 2.0% |
| Inverter | -171 | 4.0% |
| Downtime | -41 | 1.0% |
| Delivered | 4060 | 86.1% |
This is optional — the figures above do not depend on it. It answers one question the headline numbers answer badly: at this time of year, is the sun actually where my roof is pointing? Move either scrubber and the sentence follows.
Jun, 12:00 solar time: the sun is 62 degrees above the horizon in the south. The panels meet it at 7 degrees off square, collecting 99% of what a panel aimed straight at it would.
Jun, 12:00 solar time: the sun is 62 degrees above the horizon in the south. The panels meet it at 7 degrees off square, collecting 99% of what a panel aimed straight at it would.
| Hour | Height | Bearing | Panel response |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | 1° | 53° north-east | 0% |
| 06:00 | 18° | 75° east | 11% |
| 08:00 | 36° | 98° east | 55% |
| 10:00 | 53° | 130° south-east | 88% |
| 12:00 | 62° | 180° south | 99% |
| 14:00 | 53° | 230° south-west | 88% |
| 16:00 | 36° | 262° west | 55% |
| 18:00 | 18° | 285° west | 11% |
| 20:00 | 1° | 307° north-west | 0% |
| Assumption | Value | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Temporal resolution | 8760 intervals | Hourly across a full year |
| Module temperature coefficient | -0.38%/°C | Panels lose output when hot |
| Nominal operating cell temp | 45°C | Standard rating condition |
| Soiling | 2% | Dust and dirt, annual average |
| DC wiring | 2% | Resistive loss before the inverter |
| Module mismatch | 2% | Panels never perform identically |
| Inverter efficiency | 96% | Weighted, not peak |
| Downtime | 1% | Faults and maintenance |
| Ground reflectance | 0.20 | Light bouncing up off the ground |
| Snow | Not modelled | Declared rather than silently ignored |
This model is compared against PVGIS, the European Commission’s reference tool, across 144 fixtures spanning eight sites on five continents. The measured deviation is published rather than summarised: see the methodology page for the figures by climate, latitude and orientation, including where the model is known to run high.
Agreement with a reference model means this implementation reproduces an independent one of the same physics. It is not proof that either matches a real roof, and this page does not claim that.