Solar · off-grid
An off-grid system is sized by its worst month, not its average one — and the difference between those two is far larger than grid-tied intuition suggests.
Sized on Dec, this site needs 4.12 kWp. Sized on the annual average it would need only 1.22 kWp — 3.4 times less, and dark all winter.
A kilowatt-peak here returns 4.05 kWh on an average day in the best month and 0.79 kWh in the worst — a swing of 5.1 to one. A grid-tied system never has to care, because the grid quietly covers December. Off grid, December is the entire design problem.
| Usable energy needed | 9.0 kWh | 3 kWh a day for 3 days without sun |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal bank | 11.8 kWh | after depth of discharge and the temperature the bank lives at |
| Bank in amp-hours | 245 Ah | at 48 V — the number batteries are sold by |
| Array | 4.12 kWp | to refill that from Dec sun, through the controller and the battery |
| Controller current | 86 A | array power divided by system voltage, before any margin |
| Runtime from full | 3.0 days | with no generation at all |
| Month | kWh |
|---|---|
| Jan | 1 |
| Feb | 2 |
| Mar | 3 |
| Apr | 4 |
| May | 4 |
| Jun | 4 |
| Jul | 4 |
| Aug | 4 |
| Sep | 3 |
| Oct | 2 |
| Nov | 1 |
| Dec | 1 |
| Total | 32 |
At this site the tilt that maximises annual output is 30°, and the tilt that maximises the worst month is 55°. Moving from the first to the second raises the December floor by 7.2% and costs 5.6% of the annual total.
For a grid-tied system that trade is a straight loss: annual kilowatt-hours are what you are paid for, and the shape of the year is the grid's problem. Off grid it is the opposite. The annual total is largely spilled — once the bank is full on a June afternoon, the array has nowhere to put anything more — while every percent added to the worst month comes straight off the size of the array and the bank you have to buy. Steeper panels also shed snow, which the model does not credit them for.
A PWM controller connects the array almost directly to the battery, pulling the modules down from the voltage where they make most power to whatever the battery happens to be sitting at. The difference is not stored anywhere; it is simply never collected. Switching this system from MPPT to PWM does not make it slightly worse — it makes the array it needs substantially bigger, because the shortfall has to be made up in panels.
This sizes energy and capacity. It does not design an electrical installation. It will not tell you the conductor size, the fuse or breaker rating, the earthing arrangement, or how many modules belong in a string. Those are safety-critical calculations governed by standards that differ by jurisdiction and revise on their own schedule, and getting one wrong can destroy equipment or start a fire. This section does not publish them, because publishing them responsibly requires review by an engineer credentialled where you are and independent of whoever wrote the tool. A disclaimer is not that review, so the tools are absent rather than hedged.